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Backgammon Probabilities

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Backgammon is one of the most attractive games to people everywhere. This must have something to do with the fact that it consists of equal parts of skill and luck. The secret to winning is in understanding backgammon probabilities and thus your chances of winning the game.

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What backgammon probabilities indicate essentially are the chances or likelihood of a scenario coming true. For example, suppose you find that a pair of 5s is what you need to make a perfect play. You then go on to compute the likelihood of getting a pair of 5s. There is a 1 in 6 chance of a die being rolled, as you want. Thus, you multiply those odds for two dice. Thus, you have a 1 in 36 chance of getting your desired result. This is clearly not very high, which means you must not depend on it.

Backgammon probabilities state that there are 36 possible outcomes when two dice are rolled. If you list out all the possible combinations you will find that the chances of getting a double are rare or 1 in 36 to be precise. However the chances of getting two different numbers like 5,3 are doubled. This is because there are two possible combinations to look out for 5,3 and 3,5. Thus, the probabilities of getting a desired combination where the two numbers are different are 2 in 36 or 1 in 17. At some point if you find that you are exactly 7 pips away from winning, the probability of getting a total of 7 from your dice are 6 in 36 or 1 in 6. This is substantially higher than the others are.

Another thing backgammon probabilities indicate is the odds of reentering a bar after being hit. The following table can summarize the odds of reentering. This is for only one checker, the odds increase for multiple checkers.

The best way to use these backgammon probabilities is shown in the following example. At one stage you have checkers on the 2, 4 and 6 point. Your opponent, has put 3 of his checkers in 1 point. Rolling a 6,1 would allow you to bear off the 6 but what about the 1 point? By using the backgammon probabilities you can see that leaving them on 4, 1 will give you an 80.1% chance of winning as opposed to 3, 2 that will only give you a 69% chance. Do you like to play European Blackjack? Now you can play the game in a great new setting!

Since it is not always possible to draw the table, what matters is you memorize the salient points in backgammon probabilities. An important part to calculate is the chances of being hit. This formula can help. Chance of successful role= (total usable combinations/36)%. If a usable combination is greater than 18/36 the chances are more than half that the play will be in your favor.

Armed with this knowledge go on out there and use backgammon probabilities to win.

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